This article began as a response of mine to an article by Eugenio De Lucchi titled, “New Research Reveals: Under-40s Are Going to See Terrible Things.” Eugenio’s article asserted, “Seven years, 269 days, and 10 hours. That’s how long before climate change will be irreversible.” Followed by a lengthy explanation.
I responded to that article with the following comment.
“The problem can be stated very simply.
There are too many people doing too much stuff.
There is no solution to this problem that will not be very painful.
Sadly, many who bear no responsibility for this mess will suffer.”
Someone responded to my comment saying, “Most countries on Earth have a birthrate below replacement level. Their populations are shrinking. Even those with a positive growth rate are rapidly slowing. At this rate population will peak around 10 billion and then start shrinking.”
I responded to that comment. My reply was very long, so I decided to turn my reply into this article… which follows…
I won’t dispute the notion that today some countries have declining populations. But the total world population has increased every year since at least 5000 BC, except during the 14th century, when there was a decline brought on by the bubonic plague.
- Between 5000 BC and 4000 BC the world population increased by about 2,000 people per year.
- By the year 1 AD it was increasing at about 100,000 per year.
- By 1100 AD it was increasing at about 450,000 per year.
- During the 1300s world population declined by about 50,000 per year because of the bubonic plague. The only time in history when there was a measurable decline in human population.
- By 1804 (the year of the Lewis and Clark expedition) the total world population hit 1-billion, and was increasing at more than 5 million people per year.
- By 1950, the year I was born, the world population hit 2.5 billion, and was increasing at more than 20 million per year.
- By 1969, the year mankind first set foot on the moon, the world population hit 3.5 billion, and was increasing at about 74 million per year.
- By the late 1980s we were above 5 billion, and hit the maximum rate of increase ever at about 92 million per year.
After the late 1980s the rate of increase started to decline. That does not mean the the world population was declining, it just means it was increasing slower than it had been a few years earlier. That rate of increase has continued to decline over the last 35 years or so. Today it is increasing at more than 80 million every year. The rate of increase may well continue declining. The UN Population Division Estimates we will reach about 11 billion by 2100, after which they say it MAY start declining.
The most important question to ask about this problem is… Just how many humans can a HEALTHY Earth ecosystem support??? We are already decimating world resources at an utterly unsustainable rate. At 11 billion it will be that much worse. I don’t know what the number would need to be to restore a healthy world wide ecosystem, but my guess is it may be something like ONE billion humans… Roughly what it was at the time of the Lewis and Clark expedition.
Barring a catastrophe (a very likely possibility), it will be a very long time before the human population declines AT ALL!!! Remember, even though it is increasing more slowly than it was a few years ago, it is still increasing.
We are all cursed with the erroneous assumption that “normal” and “sustainable” is what ever it has been during our personal time on this planet.
If we don’t halt population growth with justice and compassion, it will be done for us by nature, brutally and without pity- and will leave a ravaged world.
~~~~ Nobel Laureate, Henry W. Kendall
